Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.6 – 19.57

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.8 ±12.2

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 21.72Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 102.21Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 42.67Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.4 ±18.5

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 3.23Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX 2.57Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 13.77Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8151, 6417, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 6417, 7576

Auto

18.9 13%

Teleop

87.3 60%

Endgame

40.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5553, 8584, 9102

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 5553, 8584, 9102

Auto

9.5 100%

Teleop

-6.4 0%

Endgame

4.0 56%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score166.6pts

Blue projected score19.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 147
Score range: -8–195
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 157.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.8Season APEX97.4

18.9Auto9.5

87.3Teleop-6.4

40Endgame4

17Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	7
teleop	58	14
endgame	27	24
foul	0	0
total	97	45

Result

Final score

97 – 45

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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