Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

296.5 – 136.01

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

410 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.9 ±10.4

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 126.02Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 147.27Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 23.21Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 227.4 ±12.7

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 32.24Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 79.19Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 24.58Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7632, 2905, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7632, 2905, 6988

Auto

40.9 16%

Teleop

168.3 65%

Endgame

51.5 20%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10064, 8079, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 8079, 6232

Auto

24.8 19%

Teleop

77.3 59%

Endgame

29.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score296.5pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.5
Score range: 108–325
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 153.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.9Season APEX227.4

40.9Auto24.8

168.3Teleop77.3

51.5Endgame29.8

9Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	32
teleop	258	29
endgame	45	9
foul	0	20
total	410	90

Result

Final score

410 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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