Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118.99 – 149.48

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.4 ±15.3

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 70.82Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 22.24Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 25.93Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.6 ±11

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 33.09Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 74.78Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 41.61Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8169, 9601, 8042

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 9601, 8042

Auto

22.9 20%

Teleop

70.8 63%

Endgame

18.1 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9079, 6989, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

149.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9079, 6989, 10396

Auto

32.6 22%

Teleop

93.1 64%

Endgame

20.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score119pts

Blue projected score149.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.5
Score range: 91–177
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 250 vs event baseline 154.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.4Season APEX387.6

22.9Auto32.6

70.8Teleop93.1

18.1Endgame20.5

0Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	44	65
endgame	11	62
foul	0	25
total	81	169

Result

Final score

81 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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