Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.82 – 61.05

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.9 ±11.7

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 11.61Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 97.34Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 96.87Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 134.2 ±15.2

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX -9.41Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 48.64Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 21.82Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7742, 6417, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.8 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7742, 6417, 9427

Auto

37.0 19%

Teleop

107.9 54%

Endgame

54.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8584, 9519, 11010

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8584, 9519, 11010

Auto

26.9 38%

Teleop

17.7 25%

Endgame

26.1 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score205.8pts

Blue projected score61.1pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 144.8
Score range: 33–234
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 155.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.9Season APEX134.2

37Auto26.9

107.9Teleop17.7

54.4Endgame26.1

65Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	26
teleop	140	51
endgame	81	45
foul	0	60
total	265	182

Result

Final score

265 – 182

Prediction correct · off by 90.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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