Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.19 – 12.3

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

301 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±11.1

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 192.97Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 21Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 39.22Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 381.2 ±11.6

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.26Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 16.67Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -23.63Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4481, 6232, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.2 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4481, 6232, 6838

Auto

29.5 13%

Teleop

135.8 60%

Endgame

60.7 27%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8151, 6988, 10907

/ 100 compat

Projected

12.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 6988, 10907

Auto

-0.9 14%

Teleop

-0.5 8%

Endgame

-4.9 78%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score253.2pts

Blue projected score12.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 240.9
Score range: -16–281
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 153.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

368Season APEX381.2

29.5Auto-0.9

135.8Teleop-0.5

60.7Endgame-4.9

13Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	4
teleop	175	34
endgame	56	18
foul	15	15
total	301	71

Result

Final score

301 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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