Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.8 – 228.4

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 101.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.6 ±11.6

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 58.99Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 62.71Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 12.1Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.7 ±11.6

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 87.16Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 10.67Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 130.57Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8169, 6989, 11010

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 6989, 11010

Auto

29.6 22%

Teleop

84.0 61%

Endgame

24.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8079, 11300, 7632

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 11300, 7632

Auto

47.1 21%

Teleop

131.1 59%

Endgame

45.0 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score133.8pts

Blue projected score228.4pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.6
Score range: 106–256
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 367 vs event baseline 154.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.6Season APEX397.7

29.6Auto47.1

84Teleop131.1

24Endgame45

11Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	58	7
teleop	130	53
endgame	45	24
foul	5	45
total	238	129

Result

Final score

238 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 101.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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