Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

256.27 – 142

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.2 ±11.7

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 214.72Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 32.24Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 9.31Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278.1 ±11.6

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 100.39Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 4.58Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 37.03Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4481, 9079, 9601

/ 100 compat

Projected

256.3 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4481, 9079, 9601

Auto

45.1 19%

Teleop

145.7 61%

Endgame

49.2 21%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9427, 8084, 6838

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 8084, 6838

Auto

31.0 23%

Teleop

64.8 47%

Endgame

41.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.21 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score256.3pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.3
Score range: 112–286
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.2Season APEX278.1

45.1Auto31

145.7Teleop64.8

49.2Endgame41.9

11Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	37
teleop	179	49
endgame	43	59
foul	35	0
total	304	145

Result

Final score

304 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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