Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.75 – 62.08

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.4 ±11

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -26.54Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 100.57Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 108.72Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234 ±14.9

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 19.29Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 3.08Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 39.71Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10907, 6417, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.8 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10907, 6417, 9427

Auto

38.6 20%

Teleop

99.9 52%

Endgame

52.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6988, 5553, 9601

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6988, 5553, 9601

Auto

17.1 59%

Teleop

14.4 50%

Endgame

-2.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182.8pts

Blue projected score62.1pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 120.7
Score range: 34–211
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 156.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.4Season APEX234

38.6Auto17.1

99.9Teleop14.4

52Endgame-2.7

123Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	8
teleop	75	8
endgame	43	7
foul	0	0
total	144	23

Result

Final score

144 – 23

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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