Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.63 – 78.79

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

141 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.9 ±13.9

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 53.08Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 58.65Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 25.9Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.4 ±14.8

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 1.94Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 74.12Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 2.73Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8169, 9519, 10064

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 9519, 10064

Auto

13.0 9%

Teleop

90.7 61%

Endgame

45.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9102, 8079, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9102, 8079, 8151

Auto

19.8 28%

Teleop

43.9 62%

Endgame

6.8 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score137.6pts

Blue projected score78.8pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.8
Score range: 51–166
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 157.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.9Season APEX258.4

13Auto19.8

90.7Teleop43.9

45.2Endgame6.8

0Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	30
teleop	63	101
endgame	48	45
foul	5	15
total	141	191

Result

Final score

141 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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