Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

46.8 – 187.15

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 22 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.1 ±12.1

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX 6.15Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 2.78Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 37.87Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439 ±10.4

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 56.78Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 106.71Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 23.66Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11300, 8151, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11300, 8151, 9079

Auto

7.9 24%

Teleop

33.3 100%

Endgame

-8.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10396, 9427, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 9427, 6988

Auto

32.4 20%

Teleop

84.9 53%

Endgame

44.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score46.8pts

Blue projected score187.2pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -140.4
Score range: 18–216
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 190 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.1Season APEX439

7.9Auto32.4

33.3Teleop84.9

-8.1Endgame44.1

18Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	33
teleop	13	93
endgame	5	24
foul	10	0
total	40	150

Result

Final score

40 – 150

Prediction correct · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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