Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.94 – 90.76

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

285 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512.7 ±11

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 145.29Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 43.4Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX 8.25Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±15.3

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 46.08Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 27.36Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 17.32Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2905, 6989, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2905, 6989, 6232

Auto

55.5 28%

Teleop

118.6 59%

Endgame

25.7 13%

Strengths

· 2905 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8169, 8042, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.8 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 8042, 7742

Auto

6.4 8%

Teleop

64.9 79%

Endgame

10.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score196.9pts

Blue projected score90.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.2
Score range: 63–225
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 407 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512.7Season APEX170.5

55.5Auto6.4

118.6Teleop64.9

25.7Endgame10.8

32Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	6
teleop	191	71
endgame	41	45
foul	30	0
total	285	122

Result

Final score

285 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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