Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.31 – 160.2

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 412.6 ±14.4

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 72.69Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX -2.55Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 143.17Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.3 ±13.9

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 64.93Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 31.3Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 63.97Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8079, 5553, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 5553, 8725

Auto

49.1 22%

Teleop

137.4 62%

Endgame

35.4 16%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6014, 6838, 9519

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.2 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6014, 6838, 9519

Auto

16.5 12%

Teleop

59.3 43%

Endgame

62.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score213.3pts

Blue projected score160.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.1
Score range: 132–241
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

412.6Season APEX159.3

49.1Auto16.5

137.4Teleop59.3

35.4Endgame62.6

67Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	33
teleop	90	60
endgame	60	25
foul	25	0
total	217	118

Result

Final score

217 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 22.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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