Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.2 – 172.17

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.6 ±10.4

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 157.13Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 142.11Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 41.96Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 524.4 ±11

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 83.99Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 28.12Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 60.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 7632, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 7632, 10396

Auto

62.7 19%

Teleop

195.7 59%

Endgame

72.9 22%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6989, 6988, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.2 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 6989, 6988, 8079

Auto

38.2 25%

Teleop

86.2 56%

Endgame

29.0 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score341.2pts

Blue projected score172.2pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169
Score range: 142–371
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.6Season APEX524.4

62.7Auto38.2

195.7Teleop86.2

72.9Endgame29

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	34
teleop	239	25
endgame	83	17
foul	0	0
total	366	76

Result

Final score

366 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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