Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.95 – 23.76

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.4 ±12.2

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 35.4Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 122.1Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX 9.45Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.4 ±14.1

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX -5.73Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 26.25Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 3.24Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10064, 7632, 11010

/ 100 compat

Projected

167 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 7632, 11010

Auto

26.3 16%

Teleop

89.0 55%

Endgame

45.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8584, 8084, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8584, 8084, 8151

Auto

7.0 29%

Teleop

7.4 31%

Endgame

9.6 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score167pts

Blue projected score23.8pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 143.2
Score range: -4–195
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 157.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.4Season APEX115.4

26.3Auto7

89Teleop7.4

45.1Endgame9.6

36Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	16
teleop	109	7
endgame	53	12
foul	0	0
total	201	35

Result

Final score

201 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 22.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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