Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.49 – 19.72

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±14.9

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 29.99Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 25.08Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 37.42Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±15.3

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -18.5Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX -7.09Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 45.31Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8042, 7742, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8042, 7742, 6988

Auto

-0.6 0%

Teleop

19.2 54%

Endgame

17.0 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10907, 9102, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10907, 9102, 7576

Auto

6.0 0%

Teleop

-0.3 4%

Endgame

-12.4 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score92.5pts

Blue projected score19.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.8
Score range: -9–121
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 110 vs event baseline 161.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.7Season APEX291

-0.6Auto6

19.2Teleop-0.3

17Endgame-12.4

40Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	7
teleop	37	24
endgame	10	11
foul	15	0
total	68	42

Result

Final score

68 – 42

Prediction correct · off by 23.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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