Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.17 – 144.56

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

252 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 81.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.5 ±12.2

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 37.09Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 52.29Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 46.79Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±11

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 102.8Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX -0.63Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 42.39Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10396, 8079, 6014

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 8079, 6014

Auto

24.9 16%

Teleop

97.0 63%

Endgame

32.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9427, 6232, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9427, 6232, 6989

Auto

45.5 29%

Teleop

75.7 49%

Endgame

34.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.2pts

Blue projected score144.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.4
Score range: 107–174
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.5Season APEX404.5

24.9Auto45.5

97Teleop75.7

32.1Endgame34.6

0Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	51
teleop	127	106
endgame	66	34
foul	10	0
total	252	191

Result

Final score

252 – 191

Prediction missed · off by 81.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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