Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.21 – 179.63

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 86.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 370.9 ±12.2

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 118.14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -4.42Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 13.49Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 255.9 ±12.9

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 92.59Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 56.57Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 30.47Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2905, 11300, 9601

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2905, 11300, 9601

Auto

42.5 28%

Teleop

89.8 59%

Endgame

20.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6417, 9519, 9079

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 9519, 9079

Auto

50.4 28%

Teleop

91.9 51%

Endgame

37.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score179.6pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.4
Score range: 99–208
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 479 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

370.9Season APEX255.9

42.5Auto50.4

89.8Teleop91.9

20.9Endgame37.2

41Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	18
teleop	134	119
endgame	13	82
foul	50	0
total	260	219

Result

Final score

260 – 219

Prediction missed · off by 86.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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