Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.06 – 390.99

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 420

Prediction correct · off by 26 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.8 ±14.8

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 37.82Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 29.72Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 1.52Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.2 ±10.5

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 44.84Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 136.81Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 209.34Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6838, 8084, 5553

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 8084, 5553

Auto

17.6 30%

Teleop

23.8 41%

Endgame

16.9 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8169, 8725, 4481

/ 100 compat

Projected

391 pts

~2.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8169, 8725, 4481

Auto

48.6 13%

Teleop

249.1 67%

Endgame

73.3 20%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score69.1pts

Blue projected score391pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -321.9
Score range: 41–419
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 153.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.8Season APEX569.2

17.6Auto48.6

23.8Teleop249.1

16.9Endgame73.3

102Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	39
teleop	10	261
endgame	10	115
foul	10	5
total	46	420

Result

Final score

46 – 420

Prediction correct · off by 26 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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