Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.76 – 105.47

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 122.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.1 ±14.1

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX -26.56Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 62.5Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 11.82Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 323.5 ±12.8

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 30.19Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 38.4Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 36.88Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8584, 9427, 10064

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 8584, 9427, 10064

Auto

28.0 40%

Teleop

14.8 21%

Endgame

27.9 39%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6014, 7576, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.5 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 6014, 7576, 6989

Auto

25.3 39%

Teleop

21.3 33%

Endgame

18.4 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score105.5pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.7
Score range: 21–132
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 151.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.1Season APEX323.5

28Auto25.3

14.8Teleop21.3

27.9Endgame18.4

74Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	31
teleop	103	100
endgame	85	40
foul	15	0
total	228	171

Result

Final score

228 – 171

Prediction missed · off by 122.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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