Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.44 – 252.64

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.2 ±17.1

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 41.48Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 46.3Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX 5.66Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309.6 ±12.9

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 54.64Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 37.94Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 160.06Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8042, 9079, 5553

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 8042, 9079, 5553

Auto

18.4 27%

Teleop

47.4 69%

Endgame

3.2 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9519, 8151, 8725

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.6 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 9519, 8151, 8725

Auto

30.3 13%

Teleop

148.0 61%

Endgame

63.2 26%

Strengths

· 8725 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.4pts

Blue projected score252.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.2
Score range: 65–281
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.2Season APEX309.6

18.4Auto30.3

47.4Teleop148

3.2Endgame63.2

62Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	34
teleop	35	119
endgame	11	44
foul	15	0
total	74	197

Result

Final score

74 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 37.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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