Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

206.72 – 366.96

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

226 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 482.4 ±11

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 111.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 50.32Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 44.92Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 622.2 ±10.5

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 97Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 217.89Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 52.07Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2905, 8169, 6988

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.7 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2905, 8169, 6988

Auto

29.2 17%

Teleop

99.7 60%

Endgame

38.1 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6417, 4481, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

367 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 4481, 8079

Auto

70.6 19%

Teleop

216.0 59%

Endgame

79.8 22%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score206.7pts

Blue projected score367pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.2
Score range: 180–394
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

482.4Season APEX622.2

29.2Auto70.6

99.7Teleop216

38.1Endgame79.8

69Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	52
teleop	165	246
endgame	31	85
foul	5	0
total	226	383

Result

Final score

226 – 383

Prediction correct · off by 17.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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