Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.9 – 132.79

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

455 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 134.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 633.1 ±11.9

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 38.86Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 196.47Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 72.57Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.8 ±11.7

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX -10.58Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 124.6Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 18.77Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9519, 4481, 2905

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.9 pts

~2.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9519, 4481, 2905

Auto

70.4 23%

Teleop

175.2 57%

Endgame

62.7 20%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10064, 8725, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10064, 8725, 6989

Auto

33.9 22%

Teleop

88.9 57%

Endgame

33.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.58 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score307.9pts

Blue projected score132.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 175.1
Score range: 107–334
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 710 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

633.1Season APEX468.8

70.4Auto33.9

175.2Teleop88.9

62.7Endgame33.8

61Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	62
teleop	260	142
endgame	141	51
foul	0	0
total	455	255

Result

Final score

455 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 134.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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