Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

165.47 – 62.59

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 94.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.5 ±14.9

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 52.46Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 65.94Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 47.07Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 256.5 ±14.8

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 29.91Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 36.06Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -3.38Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10396, 7742, 9102

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10396, 7742, 9102

Auto

17.7 14%

Teleop

96.1 73%

Endgame

17.1 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8079, 8042, 11300

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.6 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8079, 8042, 11300

Auto

22.0 31%

Teleop

34.7 49%

Endgame

13.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score165.5pts

Blue projected score62.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.9
Score range: 37–191
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.5Season APEX256.5

17.7Auto22

96.1Teleop34.7

17.1Endgame13.7

30Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	28
teleop	24	94
endgame	0	20
foul	15	0
total	55	142

Result

Final score

55 – 142

Prediction missed · off by 94.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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