Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.96 – 72.32

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 99.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.2 ±12.2

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX 31.42Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 11.97Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 38.57Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±12.1

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX -3.82Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 46.53Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 29.61Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6988, 6838, 7576

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6988, 6838, 7576

Auto

8.9 20%

Teleop

10.8 24%

Endgame

25.8 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11010, 8084, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 11010, 8084, 8169

Auto

15.3 20%

Teleop

46.0 61%

Endgame

14.5 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score82pts

Blue projected score72.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 46–108
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.2Season APEX190.9

8.9Auto15.3

10.8Teleop46

25.8Endgame14.5

28Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	31
teleop	34	86
endgame	14	21
foul	140	15
total	201	153

Result

Final score

201 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 99.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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