Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.1 – 215.11

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 91.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.7 ±11.2

4481Team Rembrandts

A+

Season APEX 299.9Event APEX 151.5Rank 1Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 10.97Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 103.63Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.6 ±11.6

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 172.27Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9079Mechanic storm

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 49.29Rank 18Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6232Florya Bisons

Season APEX 17.9Event APEX -6.45Rank 22Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4481, 6014, 6417

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4481, 6014, 6417

Auto

38.0 15%

Teleop

173.2 69%

Endgame

38.3 15%

Strengths

· 4481 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7632, 9079, 6232

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.1 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 7632, 9079, 6232

Auto

19.8 11%

Teleop

116.0 65%

Endgame

42.0 24%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score266.1pts

Blue projected score215.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51
Score range: 191–290
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 512 vs event baseline 134.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.7Season APEX249.6

38Auto19.8

173.2Teleop116

38.3Endgame42

17Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	39
teleop	188	80
endgame	109	15
foul	15	5
total	373	139

Result

Final score

373 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 91.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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