Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

22.31 – 98.59

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

71 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233 ±14.6

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 33.86Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX -36.66Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8079River Robotics Team

Season APEX 164.6Event APEX 25.11Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 142.3 ±13.3

9601BageTech

Season APEX 50.1Event APEX 61.16Rank 29Record 3-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10064HanniBal

Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 1.46Rank 24Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 35.97Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7742, 8584, 8079

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.3 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 7742, 8584, 8079

Auto

18.1 75%

Teleop

-0.5 0%

Endgame

6.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9601, 10064, 8151

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.6 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 9601, 10064, 8151

Auto

10.6 14%

Teleop

62.5 82%

Endgame

3.4 4%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score22.3pts

Blue projected score98.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.3
Score range: -3–124
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 105 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233Season APEX142.3

18.1Auto10.6

-0.5Teleop62.5

6.6Endgame3.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	9
teleop	37	15
endgame	4	10
foul	0	0
total	71	34

Result

Final score

71 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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