Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

168.44 – 99.67

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

203 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±12.2

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 111.05Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7576FMWill

Season APEX 52.8Event APEX 14.92Rank 16Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8084ALFA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 58.9Event APEX 42.47Rank 25Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 465.9 ±13.9

6988ACI35

Season APEX 142.2Event APEX -0.5Rank 15Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2905Sultans of Turkiye

Season APEX 277.2Event APEX 69.78Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 30.39Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8725, 7576, 8084

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.4 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 7576, 8084

Auto

23.2 15%

Teleop

91.2 58%

Endgame

42.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6988, 2905, 9102

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6988, 2905, 9102

Auto

35.3 36%

Teleop

58.3 59%

Endgame

5.4 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.94 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score168.4pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 68.8
Score range: 76–192
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318Season APEX465.9

23.2Auto35.3

91.2Teleop58.3

42.3Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	39
teleop	113	81
endgame	46	36
foul	5	40
total	203	196

Result

Final score

203 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 65.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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