Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.39 – 0

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.7 ±11

6838X-SHARC

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX -0.4Rank 20Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 96.27Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 38.52Rank 8Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±12.1

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX -16.24Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11010Bobcats

Season APEX 69Event APEX -21.66Rank 19Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11300ZENITH

Season APEX 43.6Event APEX -6.95Rank 9Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6838, 6417, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6838, 6417, 10396

Auto

33.2 23%

Teleop

75.1 51%

Endgame

38.6 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10907, 11010, 11300

/ 100 compat

Projected

-44.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10907, 11010, 11300

Auto

1.2 0%

Teleop

-11.1 39%

Endgame

-18.4 65%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score-44.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.4
Score range: -25–159
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 209 vs event baseline 138.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.7Season APEX304.3

33.2Auto1.2

75.1Teleop-11.1

38.6Endgame-18.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	6
teleop	111	8
endgame	35	3
foul	20	0
total	192	17

Result

Final score

192 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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