Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.85 – 219.6

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.7 ±15.8

5553Robo'Lyon

Season APEX 41.7Event APEX -10.26Rank 28Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 36.07Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 33.04Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.9 ±14.9

7632An Kang Robotics Maker

Season APEX 189.5Event APEX 163.53Rank 4Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6014ARC

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 17.86Rank 10Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 38.21Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5553, 8169, 9519

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.9 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5553, 8169, 9519

Auto

9.4 14%

Teleop

44.5 64%

Endgame

15.6 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7632, 6014, 8042

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7632, 6014, 8042

Auto

33.6 16%

Teleop

136.3 63%

Endgame

45.8 21%

Strengths

· 7632 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score58.9pts

Blue projected score219.6pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.7
Score range: 35–244
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 135.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.7Season APEX290.9

9.4Auto33.6

44.5Teleop136.3

15.6Endgame45.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	9
teleop	54	111
endgame	24	72
foul	0	45
total	102	237

Result

Final score

102 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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