Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.39 – 195.41

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

146 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 324.1 ±12.2

8151Wildfire

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 19.39Rank 17Record 6-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX -3.45Rank 13Record 7-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6989KAISER

Season APEX 217.6Event APEX 35.45Rank 7Record 8-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.8 ±13.9

8725MistyPanther

Season APEX 206.3Event APEX 102.1Rank 2Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9102CyborgBulls

Season APEX 46.5Event APEX 11.17Rank 21Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 77

9427iDeer

Season APEX 169Event APEX 82.14Rank 5Record 9-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8151, 7742, 6989

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8151, 7742, 6989

Auto

19.8 34%

Teleop

31.9 55%

Endgame

5.8 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8725, 9102, 9427

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.4 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8725, 9102, 9427

Auto

31.8 16%

Teleop

116.4 59%

Endgame

47.7 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.75 · Blue 2.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score51.4pts

Blue projected score195.4pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144
Score range: 28–218
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 395 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

324.1Season APEX421.8

19.8Auto31.8

31.9Teleop116.4

5.8Endgame47.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	54
teleop	68	132
endgame	14	48
foul	50	15
total	146	249

Result

Final score

146 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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