Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

90.2 – 154.62

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 296 ±15.8

8042Fenrir

Season APEX 48.3Event APEX 16.83Rank 27Record 3-10-0Status establishedConfidence 77

10907ROBOLYNX

Season APEX 191.7Event APEX 11.28Rank 23Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9519RoboMasters

Season APEX 56Event APEX 62.09Rank 12Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 85

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.9 ±13.6

6417Fridolins

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 92.07Rank 3Record 11-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8584Infinity Robotics

Season APEX 9.2Event APEX 6.2Rank 26Record 4-9-0Status establishedConfidence 80

8169Aries

Season APEX 63Event APEX 56.35Rank 14Record 5-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8042, 10907, 9519

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8042, 10907, 9519

Auto

14.1 16%

Teleop

39.5 44%

Endgame

35.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6417, 8584, 8169

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6417, 8584, 8169

Auto

23.1 15%

Teleop

84.9 54%

Endgame

49.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score90.2pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample156alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64.4
Score range: 60–185
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 166 vs event baseline 168.3.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

296Season APEX229.9

14.1Auto23.1

39.5Teleop84.9

35.4Endgame49

4Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	18
teleop	21	74
endgame	14	32
foul	0	0
total	42	124

Result

Final score

42 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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