Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

251.91 – 138.38

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

295 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±12.2

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 111.13Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 91.64Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 49.14Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±17.3

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 56.16Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 8.33Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 73.89Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6948, 9025, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 9025, 9231

Auto

42.3 17%

Teleop

150.7 61%

Endgame

54.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9692, 10576, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 10576, 7466

Auto

19.9 15%

Teleop

70.4 53%

Endgame

41.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.06 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score251.9pts

Blue projected score138.4pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.5
Score range: 109–281
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 492 vs event baseline 161.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.1Season APEX332.5

42.3Auto19.9

150.7Teleop70.4

54.8Endgame41.5

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	20
teleop	189	110
endgame	73	62
foul	5	5
total	295	197

Result

Final score

295 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 50.9 pts

Match videos

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