Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.54 – 238.73

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

464 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 605.1 ±15.1

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 181.85Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 19.69Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 198Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±12.2

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 106.9Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 86.67Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 45.16Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11216, 8209, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.5 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 8209, 6459

Auto

55.6 14%

Teleop

258.3 65%

Endgame

83.2 21%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6948, 9025, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 9025, 9231

Auto

38.9 17%

Teleop

147.8 63%

Endgame

46.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score399.5pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.8
Score range: 211–428
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 773 vs event baseline 155.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

605.1Season APEX325.1

55.6Auto38.9

258.3Teleop147.8

83.2Endgame46.6

8Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	55
teleop	296	165
endgame	80	89
foul	0	0
total	464	309

Result

Final score

464 – 309

Prediction correct · off by 67.4 pts

Match videos

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