Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.29 – 92.1

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

150 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±17.3

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 55.88Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 73.86Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 8.55Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.7 ±20.8

9451Aydos

Provisional

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 34.89Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.52Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 35.69Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9692, 7466, 10576

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 7466, 10576

Auto

22.1 17%

Teleop

66.5 51%

Endgame

41.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9451, 8795, 11120

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 9451, 8795, 11120

Auto

25.9 32%

Teleop

30.9 38%

Endgame

24.1 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score92.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.2
Score range: 64–166
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.5Season APEX162.7

22.1Auto25.9

66.5Teleop30.9

41.3Endgame24.1

1Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	31
teleop	90	77
endgame	45	26
foul	0	0
total	150	134

Result

Final score

150 – 134

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Match videos

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