Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

255.62 – 88.98

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

347 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 594.3 ±12.4

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 159.96Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 11.57Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 84.09Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.7 ±20.8

9451Aydos

Provisional

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 32.74Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 22.11Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 34.13Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8159, 10383, 6941

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.6 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 8159, 10383, 6941

Auto

63.9 25%

Teleop

130.6 52%

Endgame

57.7 23%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9451, 8795, 11120

/ 100 compat

Projected

89 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9451, 8795, 11120

Auto

24.7 29%

Teleop

28.5 34%

Endgame

30.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score255.6pts

Blue projected score89pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 166.6
Score range: 61–284
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 446 vs event baseline 154.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

594.3Season APEX162.7

63.9Auto24.7

130.6Teleop28.5

57.7Endgame30.6

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	31
teleop	178	37
endgame	146	1
foul	0	30
total	347	99

Result

Final score

347 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 50.7 pts

Match videos

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