Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

405.3 – 90.56

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 611.6 ±11.6

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 35.72Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 152.49Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 217.09Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 287 ±15.4

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 59.89Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 21.73Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 8.94Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8153, 8595, 10131

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 8153, 8595, 10131

Auto

62.9 16%

Teleop

246.6 61%

Endgame

92.4 23%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9692, 9043, 10576

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9692, 9043, 10576

Auto

20.4 26%

Teleop

26.0 33%

Endgame

32.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.51 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score405.3pts

Blue projected score90.6pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 314.7
Score range: 63–433
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 154.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

611.6Season APEX287

62.9Auto20.4

246.6Teleop26

92.4Endgame32.5

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	8
teleop	73	47
endgame	151	12
foul	0	0
total	310	67

Result

Final score

310 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts

Match videos

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