Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.71 – 183.14

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

310 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±12.2

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 97.8Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 78.18Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 38.73Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.4 ±14.8

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 51.85Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 36.2Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 95.09Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6948, 9025, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 9025, 9231

Auto

31.2 15%

Teleop

132.7 63%

Endgame

46.4 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 10947, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 10947, 8806

Auto

27.1 15%

Teleop

114.1 63%

Endgame

39.2 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score214.7pts

Blue projected score183.1pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.6
Score range: 156–242
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 506 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

325.1Season APEX310.4

31.2Auto27.1

132.7Teleop114.1

46.4Endgame39.2

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	13
teleop	182	123
endgame	61	60
foul	5	0
total	310	196

Result

Final score

310 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 54.1 pts

Match videos

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