Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

404.26 – 68.19

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.7 ±12.2

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 183.62Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX 21.67Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6459AG Robotik

A+

Season APEX 325.3Event APEX 198.97Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.4 ±18.1

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX -2.1Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 37.38Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7742Cosmos Robot Works

Season APEX 59.2Event APEX 32.91Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11216, 10598, 6459

/ 100 compat

Projected

404.3 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11216, 10598, 6459

Auto

53.4 13%

Teleop

250.8 62%

Endgame

97.3 24%

Strengths

· 6459 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6038, 9028, 7742

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6038, 9028, 7742

Auto

16.8 29%

Teleop

26.7 46%

Endgame

15.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score404.3pts

Blue projected score68.2pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 336.1
Score range: 41–431
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 150.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.7Season APEX137.4

53.4Auto16.8

250.8Teleop26.7

97.3Endgame15.1

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	30
teleop	301	80
endgame	88	53
foul	0	25
total	421	188

Result

Final score

421 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Match videos

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