Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.53 – 259.72

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

269 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 594.3 ±12.4

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 99.79Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 22.01Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 171.73Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 325.1 ±12.2

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 113.35Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 94.1Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9231Haydarpasa Panthers

Season APEX 86.8Event APEX 52.27Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6941, 10383, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6941, 10383, 8159

Auto

51.1 18%

Teleop

146.7 51%

Endgame

92.3 32%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6948, 9025, 9231

/ 100 compat

Projected

259.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 9025, 9231

Auto

39.7 16%

Teleop

158.0 62%

Endgame

58.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score293.5pts

Blue projected score259.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.8
Score range: 230–324
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 529 vs event baseline 166.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

594.3Season APEX325.1

51.1Auto39.7

146.7Teleop158

92.3Endgame58.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	19
teleop	186	176
endgame	29	45
foul	0	20
total	269	260

Result

Final score

269 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 12.4 pts

Match videos

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