Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.88 – 192.78

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

351 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645.2 ±11.7

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 95.39Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 29.27Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8159Golden Horn

Season APEX 278.3Event APEX 168.22Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 310.4 ±14.8

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 59.31Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 36.11Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 97.36Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6941, 11000, 8159

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.9 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6941, 11000, 8159

Auto

63.0 22%

Teleop

147.6 52%

Endgame

70.9 25%

Strengths

· 8159 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5665, 10947, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.8 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 10947, 8806

Auto

25.5 13%

Teleop

122.2 64%

Endgame

44.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.08 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292.9pts

Blue projected score192.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 100.1
Score range: 164–322
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 162.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645.2Season APEX310.4

63Auto25.5

147.6Teleop122.2

70.9Endgame44.3

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	45
teleop	175	131
endgame	131	29
foul	0	20
total	351	225

Result

Final score

351 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Match videos

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