Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

313.68 – 279.5

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 636.7 ±11.6

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 145.95Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 77.77Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 89.96Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 439.3 ±15.6

10131Royal Turtles

Season APEX 278.4Event APEX 214.33Rank 2Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -10.48Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 75.65Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8595, 6941, 6948

/ 100 compat

Projected

313.7 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8595, 6941, 6948

Auto

67.4 22%

Teleop

173.7 56%

Endgame

70.6 23%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10131, 10234, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10131, 10234, 7466

Auto

41.7 15%

Teleop

175.0 63%

Endgame

59.4 22%

Strengths

· 10131 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score313.7pts

Blue projected score279.5pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.2
Score range: 253–341
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 705 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

636.7Season APEX439.3

67.4Auto41.7

173.7Teleop175

70.6Endgame59.4

0Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	56
teleop	249	136
endgame	70	100
foul	0	25
total	388	317

Result

Final score

388 – 317

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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