Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.85 – 80.05

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

48 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 178.6 ±22

10999Cezeri Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 23.25Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 30.63Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10185Nexify Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 58.4Event APEX 10.97Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 190.9 ±20

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX 9.78Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11000NEOCHIRON

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 38.28Rank 17Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 31.99Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10999, 10959, 10185

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10999, 10959, 10185

Auto

8.3 16%

Teleop

22.0 43%

Endgame

20.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10205, 11000, 9026

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.1 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10205, 11000, 9026

Auto

14.1 19%

Teleop

28.9 38%

Endgame

32.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score80.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.2
Score range: 38–107
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

178.6Season APEX190.9

8.3Auto14.1

22Teleop28.9

20.5Endgame32.8

18Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	5
teleop	19	14
endgame	16	15
foul	0	0
total	48	34

Result

Final score

48 – 34

Prediction missed · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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