Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.86 – 103.59

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

158 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±17.3

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 20.47Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX -1.64Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8806Our Lady of Providence Dream League

Season APEX 121.4Event APEX 90.03Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.4 ±19.4

10132Kuanta Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60Event APEX 41.38Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9028GFORCE

Provisional

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 36.64Rank 39Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 25.57Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9043, 8747, 8806

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 9043, 8747, 8806

Auto

30.2 29%

Teleop

53.8 52%

Endgame

19.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10132, 9028, 8056

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.6 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10132, 9028, 8056

Auto

19.8 20%

Teleop

52.5 53%

Endgame

27.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.9pts

Blue projected score103.6pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.3
Score range: 77–136
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.3Season APEX178.4

30.2Auto19.8

53.8Teleop52.5

19.1Endgame27.2

67Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	34
teleop	83	52
endgame	54	26
foul	5	0
total	158	112

Result

Final score

158 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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