Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.74 – 47.49

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 251.5 ±13.5

10502HARPIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 20.11Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9468Team Sirius

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 24.22Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9025Mechameleons

Season APEX 132.2Event APEX 81.41Rank 6Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 174 ±19.3

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 9.32Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 7.43Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

11240Rotatech

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 30.74Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10502, 9468, 9025

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10502, 9468, 9025

Auto

23.9 19%

Teleop

72.2 57%

Endgame

29.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9020, 10576, 11240

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.5 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 9020, 10576, 11240

Auto

17.3 36%

Teleop

8.6 18%

Endgame

21.7 46%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score125.7pts

Blue projected score47.5pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 78.3
Score range: 20–153
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 150.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

251.5Season APEX174

23.9Auto17.3

72.2Teleop8.6

29.7Endgame21.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	19
teleop	45	23
endgame	14	16
foul	15	5
total	99	63

Result

Final score

99 – 63

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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