Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.04 – 209.15

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.9 ±20.5

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX -2.46Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10383Robistim

Season APEX 48.6Event APEX 18.21Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91

11240Rotatech

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 26.29Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.9 ±16.6

9020MCT Galatasaray Robotics

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 2.83Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 86

11216FLAZIA ROBOTICS

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 167.79Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9451Aydos

Provisional

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 38.53Rank 16Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8747, 10383, 11240

/ 100 compat

Projected

42 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 8747, 10383, 11240

Auto

9.6 24%

Teleop

16.5 41%

Endgame

14.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9020, 11216, 9451

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9020, 11216, 9451

Auto

43.6 21%

Teleop

115.7 56%

Endgame

46.6 23%

Strengths

· 11216 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.62 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score42pts

Blue projected score209.2pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -167.1
Score range: 10–241
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 175.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.9Season APEX330.9

9.6Auto43.6

16.5Teleop115.7

14.5Endgame46.6

71Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	37
teleop	14	128
endgame	7	60
foul	0	0
total	32	225

Result

Final score

32 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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