Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

91.35 – 109.79

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259 ±19.1

5665FENERBAHÇE DOGUS SPARC

Season APEX 148.2Event APEX 64.88Rank 20Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9026Aero

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX 37.64Rank 28Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10953LYRON

Provisional

Season APEX 55.4Event APEX -11.17Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.6 ±18.7

6941IronPulse Robotics

Season APEX 267.4Event APEX 78.47Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 21.72Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10205MAGNETAR

Provisional

Season APEX 36Event APEX 9.6Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5665, 9026, 10953

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5665, 9026, 10953

Auto

23.4 28%

Teleop

32.4 39%

Endgame

27.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6941, 8795, 10205

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6941, 8795, 10205

Auto

31.1 28%

Teleop

50.7 45%

Endgame

30.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score91.4pts

Blue projected score109.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.4
Score range: 64–137
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 175 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259Season APEX346.6

23.4Auto31.1

32.4Teleop50.7

27.4Endgame30.6

25Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	28
teleop	24	50
endgame	10	50
foul	0	0
total	47	128

Result

Final score

47 – 128

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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