Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.09 – 122.04

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 132.4 ±19

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX -7.07Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8153Tech4Peace

Season APEX 70Event APEX 41.38Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10947Antioch Rising

Provisional

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 20.78Rank 30Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±21.4

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 29.24Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

7086IOROBOT

Provisional

Season APEX 18.3Event APEX 13.76Rank 41Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7466Cymurghs

Provisional

Season APEX 118.8Event APEX 79.04Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8747, 8153, 10947

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 8747, 8153, 10947

Auto

9.9 21%

Teleop

29.8 64%

Endgame

6.8 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8209, 7086, 7466

/ 100 compat

Projected

122 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 8209, 7086, 7466

Auto

27.3 24%

Teleop

62.2 54%

Endgame

25.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.98 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score55.1pts

Blue projected score122pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.9
Score range: 28–149
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

132.4Season APEX210.5

9.9Auto27.3

29.8Teleop62.2

6.8Endgame25.3

107Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	55	44
endgame	35	12
foul	0	0
total	108	75

Result

Final score

108 – 75

Prediction missed · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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