Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.65 – 224.04

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 124.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.3 ±16

6948EAGLES

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 71.74Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10959ORHANIYE R SPORTS

Provisional

Season APEX 80.2Event APEX 10.35Rank 13Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10598TADroid

Season APEX 58Event APEX -4.44Rank 35Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.2 ±17.3

9043Valkyrie

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 28.02Rank 11Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11240Rotatech

Provisional

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 41.11Rank 29Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8595This Is How We Play

Season APEX 263.2Event APEX 154.91Rank 3Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6948, 10959, 10598

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.6 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6948, 10959, 10598

Auto

26.1 38%

Teleop

31.4 45%

Endgame

11.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9043, 11240, 8595

/ 100 compat

Projected

224 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9043, 11240, 8595

Auto

48.0 22%

Teleop

118.3 53%

Endgame

55.8 25%

Strengths

· 8595 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.73 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score77.6pts

Blue projected score224pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -146.4
Score range: 51–251
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 423 vs event baseline 149.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.3Season APEX395.2

26.1Auto48

31.4Teleop118.3

11.8Endgame55.8

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	46
teleop	166	69
endgame	70	40
foul	15	5
total	263	160

Result

Final score

263 – 160

Prediction missed · off by 124.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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