Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.06 – 104.89

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 154.7 ±18.8

5655KelRot

Provisional

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 28.48Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8056Laissez Faire

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 21.42Rank 40Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6038ITOBOT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX -15.84Rank 18Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.4 ±17.3

10576ASHINA

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 9.96Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

9692Sigma

Season APEX 174.1Event APEX 61.6Rank 22Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11120Frostbite Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 33.33Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5655, 8056, 6038

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.1 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 5655, 8056, 6038

Auto

6.6 21%

Teleop

15.1 47%

Endgame

10.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10576, 9692, 11120

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.9 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 10576, 9692, 11120

Auto

29.8 32%

Teleop

31.3 34%

Endgame

30.7 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score34.1pts

Blue projected score104.9pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.8
Score range: 7–132
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

154.7Season APEX284.4

6.6Auto29.8

15.1Teleop31.3

10.3Endgame30.7

4Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	12
teleop	38	55
endgame	9	34
foul	5	0
total	68	101

Result

Final score

68 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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