Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.05 – 76.44

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.3 ±19.4

8795The Chaotics

Provisional

Season APEX 43.2Event APEX 23.92Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

10999Cezeri Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 40Event APEX 22Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10234TEDRA

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX -1.87Rank 43Record 2-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155 ±22

10132Kuanta Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 60Event APEX 42.28Rank 27Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8209SEZMECH

Provisional

Season APEX 73.4Event APEX 35.59Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8747BLACK SEA ROBOTICS

Provisional

Season APEX 21.6Event APEX -1.43Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8795, 10999, 10234

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.1 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8795, 10999, 10234

Auto

10.1 23%

Teleop

9.7 23%

Endgame

23.2 54%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10132, 8209, 8747

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.4 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10132, 8209, 8747

Auto

16.0 22%

Teleop

41.7 58%

Endgame

14.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.13 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.1pts

Blue projected score76.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.4
Score range: 17–103
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 103 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.3Season APEX155

10.1Auto16

9.7Teleop41.7

23.2Endgame14.1

56Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	24
teleop	20	25
endgame	3	12
foul	0	0
total	42	61

Result

Final score

42 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 8.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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